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How Will Commerce and Payments Change by 2030?

Boaz Gam

Boaz Gam


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  1. 5 Key Trends Set to Revolutionize Payments & Commerce
  2. Summing Up: What Will Commerce Look Like in 2030?

How Are Commerce & Payments Expected to Transform by 2030?

The pace of the evolution of commerce has exceeded the expectations of most experts and industry observers from a few decades ago. Think about it: the first POS terminal was developed in 1973, and already today, traditional and digital payment channels intersect, transactions are processed in real time, and it’s enough for a merchant to have a smartphone to facilitate purchases.

In addition, the industry is being continuously pushed forward by rapid technological progress and the persistent consumer demand for instant gratification. With these factors in mind, it is only natural to ponder what commerce and payments will look like by 2030. Keep reading for some of the latest predictions and insights regarding the future of these spheres!

5 Key Trends Set to Revolutionize Payments & Commerce

Nowadays, we are witnessing drastic transformations in the field of commerce. But which trends are driving these changes, and what do they mean for the future of shopping and payments? Here are some of the key factors you need to keep in mind to be future-ready:

1. Fusion of In-Store and Online Payments

How Are Commerce & Payments Expected to Transform by 2030?

In the past, paying for goods at a physical store and on the Internet used to be two completely separate procedures. However, the line between these two experiences is becoming more and more blurred. As a result, the modern customer journey can start online and finish offline, or the other way around.

For example, a consumer can research a new smartphone online and then visit a local store to physically try it out. After making a decision to buy it, they can place an online order using a discount coupon they found in the store’s newsletter. Finally, they could choose to pick up the phone in person on the way home from work.

What’s more, when people shop, they expect the process to be quick, simple, and convenient regardless of the channel they are using. This is already made possible by means of:

  • Omnichannel commerce
  • One-click shopping
  • Buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) options
  • E-wallets

The list of innovative solutions goes on and continues to expand each year.

Thus, when looking ahead to 2030, it is safe to assume that in-store and online payments will become even more closely intertwined, creating an all-around seamless experience.

One of the most exciting prospects in this regard is linked to the developments in the AR and VR spheres. Already today, some forward-looking retailers offer customers the opportunity to try on products virtually and even integrate payments within these immersive environments.

2. Decreasing Use of POS Terminals & Cash

How Are Commerce & Payments Expected to Transform by 2030?

The contactless payments trend has taken the world by storm during the COVID-19 pandemic and is currently accelerated by the rise of the tap-on-phone feature.

As a result, total contactless transactions are expected to surpass the $10 trillion mark by 2027, reflecting a whopping 221% surge from 2022. What’s more, it is also projected that the contactless spend per consumer will double by 2026, soaring from $4,177 in 2022 to $7,827.

As you can see, contactless transactions are set to become a prevailing norm in the upcoming years. This tendency is mainly due to the fact that all the functionalities a consumer or business needs to make or facilitate payments are currently available through smartphones, tablets, and other NFC-enabled devices.

This, in turn, makes industry experts forecast that the use of POS terminals will significantly decline by 2023 due to their relative inconvenience. The same is also true for cash, given the growing interest in the cashless society concept across various nations.

3. Growing Demand for Social Commerce

How Are Commerce & Payments Expected to Transform by 2030?

Over the next decade, many expect social media platforms to transform from simple communication tools into shopping hubs. We can already see social commerce becoming the new norm with platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest offering users to purchase goods in a matter of clicks.

In fact, global sales through social media platforms are anticipated to reach $1.298 billion by the end of 2023. What’s more, this upward trend is expected to persist, with the figures hitting $3 trillion already by 2026.

By 2030, the integration of social media payments is likely to be interwoven with the user experience even more seamlessly. It is also forecasted that AI algorithms will learn to tailor product recommendations based on the person’s interests and social connections even better.

4. Shift Toward Exclusively Real-Time Transactions

How Are Commerce & Payments Expected to Transform by 2030?

In today’s fast-paced world, consumers have become used to getting what they want quickly. This applies not only to purchasing products and services but also to how payments are made. Thus, it comes as no surprise that real-time transactions are becoming increasingly common thanks to faster payment systems and blockchain solutions.

In the foreseeable future, the majority of businesses are expected to process transactions instantly. Additionally, many of them are likely to use real-time payment data to offer clients personalized deals and rewards right when they make purchases. For example, you could receive a discount for a coffee at a nearby cafe immediately after purchasing a book from a local bookstore.

5. AI-Driven Transformations

How Are Commerce & Payments Expected to Transform by 2030?

AI is one of the major factors that will undoubtedly play a critical role in shaping the future of payments and commerce in a variety of spheres, including:

  • Payment processing
  • Refund facilitation
  • Customer behavior analysis
  • Personalized offers
  • Inventory forecasting and optimization
  • Cybersecurity
  • Customer support

All in all, AI-driven algorithms have plenty of implementation areas in modern-day commerce and are sure to get even more use cases by 2030. In fact, the value of the AI market is predicted to grow twentyfold by 2030, increasing from nearly $100 billion in 2023 to nearly $2 trillion.

Summing Up: What Will Commerce Look Like in 2030?

How Are Commerce & Payments Expected to Transform by 2030?

Overall, we can expect the 2030 commerce landscape to be marked by seamless integrations, instant transactions, and AI-driven insights. What’s more, it is also wise for merchants to prepare themselves for unexpected fresh solutions to emerge - after all, modern tech is more advanced and dynamic than ever before.

Finally, with all these ongoing shifts and the increasing competition in the industry, it is essential for businesses to stay flexible and start adapting to the consumers’ changing needs without delay. By doing so, they will not only be able to retain their clients and attract new ones but also play an active part in shaping the future of payments and commerce as a whole.

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